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The US air strikes on Iran yesterday are a disaster. A disaster that New Zealand needs to stay well clear of.
Before yesterday, the prospect of it happening was a disaster-in-the making. And, now that it鈥檚 happened, it鈥檚 an absolute disaster.
Not because of what might happen today, tomorrow or the next day. But, what will happen when the world least expects it.
Not just in terms of what Iran itself will do. I鈥檓 talking about the inevitable terrorism activity because of what happened yesterday.
Because, if there鈥檚 something US President Donald Trump seems to have forgotten in all of this - before he ordered those bombers to fly to Iran and back - is that history often, if not always, teaches us something about the future.
When I heard about the attacks yesterday, the first thing I thought about was 9/11. When the world was changed forever after the Al Qaeda terror attacks.
Why do you think they happened? What was the lesson that you think might have been learned from that? That Trump might have learned?
The lesson 9/11 taught us was that the US and the Middle East don鈥檛 mix.
The September 11 attacks happened because of the United States鈥 history of supporting Israel. That was the nub of it. And it might be why the US has been shy of launching attacks on Iran in recent years. Until yesterday, anyway.
And what better display of the US supporting Israel can you get, than yesterday鈥檚 airstrikes?
Which is why I see some very grave consequences coming. As I say, it won鈥檛 be today. It won鈥檛 be tomorrow. And I hope I鈥檓 wrong. But do you really see these peaceful negotiations happening after yesterday?
Seven bombers flying 37 hours from Missouri to Iran and back. Bombing three sites - involving not just the stealth bombers, but other fighter jets and a US submarine, as well.
Seventy-five bombs dropped - including 14 鈥渂unker busters鈥. Which, by the way, was the first time ever that these bunker busters have been used.
And then we had Trump and his military bosses crowing about 鈥渟evere damage and destruction鈥. But then turning around and saying they don鈥檛 want war with Iran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying that the US 鈥渋s not looking for war in Iran鈥 and that the 鈥渨orld is safer and more stable than it was 24 hours ago鈥.
That鈥檚 not how I鈥檓 seeing it, at all.
And Donald Trump saying after the bombings, 鈥渘ow is the time for peace鈥. Really?
Quite rightly, UN head Ant贸nio Guterres is saying 鈥渢here is no military solution.鈥
He鈥檚 saying that the airstrikes are a dangerous escalation which 鈥渃ould rapidly get out of control - with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world.鈥
Which is exactly how I鈥檓 feeling about it.
And I hope that the most-involved New Zealand gets in all of this is sending the air force plane to help kiwis who want to get out of Iran and Israel. There are about 80 New Zealanders in Iran and about 100 in Israel.
And that needs to be it. Because this conflict is not something we need to be involved in.
I鈥檓 pleased to see the Foreign Affairs Minister keeping his cool and not banging the drum about New Zealand doing its bit. Defence Minister Judith Collins is the same.
In fact, Winston Peters says it鈥檚 the most serious issue he鈥檚 had to respond to during his whole time in politics. Likening the way the world is waiting to see what happens next, to the Cuban missile crisis in the early 1960s. When it looked like the US and the Soviet Union could go to war with each other after Soviet missile sites were discovered in Cuba.
So let鈥檚 get the Kiwis home who want to come home, and leave it at that.
Because, if we sign-up to anything involving Donald Trump, we鈥檒l have absolutely no idea what we鈥檙e getting ourselves into.
Because, it seems, that the only country that had any sort of heads up before yesterday鈥檚 attacks was Israel. And I don鈥檛 want New Zealand having a bar of it.
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