/on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/rss 九一星空无限 Sat, 18 Oct 2025 05:47:33 Z en /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-tax-cuts-id-argue-that-neither-side-is-looking-at-the-full-picture/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-tax-cuts-id-argue-that-neither-side-is-looking-at-the-full-picture/ Well... Has there been an earth tremor in the ideological universe. Are some capitalists wavering and beginning to argue for a pause to tax cuts and even a capital gains tax?   One of my favourite reads is the business section of the Weekend Herald on a Saturday. It has the best articles and opinion pieces - but this week was especially interesting.   On page six was Steven Joyce with a piece called ‘The Case for Tax Cuts’.   He toed the centre-right political line that tax cuts are affordable and a good thing because they give hard working Kiwis a reward for their hard work which will keep them working hard and hopefully harder.   He pointed out that the tax cuts are tax bracket adjustments for brackets that haven't changed for 14 years. Which means higher tax rates now kick in for people who are not any richer than 14 years ago, in fact they're poorer.   He says to achieve economic growth we need to increase the rewards for working an hour, and it's only by growing fast that we can afford the infrastructure, the public services and the lifestyle we aspire to.   So far so ideologically sound.   But then on page 2 is Fran O'Sullivan, former NBR editor and now the Herald's Head of Business and friend to the capitalist world.   And she says bugger politics and let's get rational.   She says it's unfathomable that taking steps to address the Government's structural deficit is regarded as politically toxic. She's talking about selling state assets, and restraining spending but also taxing capital gains.   It's that last bit that's fascinating.   The point being that we're losing our teachers, cops and health staff because we can't afford to pay them.    Meanwhile, our hospitals, roads and schools are falling apart because we can't afford to fix them.     But all that pay and development is funded by taxes.     But the tax take is dropping because of a self-inflicted recession by the Reserve Bank and tax cuts.   Fran is repeating the lines that economists and the OECD and the iIMF have all said in recent months.    The country has to pay for stuff and yet we're hell bent on making the country poorer in the hope that one day we will be richer.   I'd argue that neither side is looking at the full picture.  LISTEN ABOVE.    Mon, 20 May 2024 01:13:42 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-newshub-has-been-broke-for-ages/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-newshub-has-been-broke-for-ages/ So the culture wars that erupted after the closing of 九一星空无限hub continued over the weekend. The go woke-go broke crowd have been out in force trying to prove their claims. Economist Rob MacCulloch has written a piece entitled: 'Economics 101 explains why 九一星空无限hub bankrupted.' In it, he uses a David Farrar survey of Kiwiblog readers that guessed at the political leaning of media offerings. Knowing that Kiwiblog is openly right wing and its readers are of one mind already puts a big question mark on the findings. But anyway, Rob determined that all the media is left wing except the Platform and 九一星空无限talk ZB and this is what caused 九一星空无限hub to go broke. 九一星空无限flash, 九一星空无限hub has been broke for ages. Economics 101 says if you load your company up with debt and then enter a recession that heavily affects marketing budgets- then you go bust. 九一星空无限hub has existed on the kindness and deep pockets of its owners. Warner Bros. Discovery are themselves in difficulty and they thought nothing of cutting off a New Zealand newsroom, and in doing so, making 15 percent of New Zealand journalists redundant. David Farrar's survey also says the Herald is the most left wing. Which is exactly what I was thinking as I read opinion pieces from Stephen Joyce, Richard Prebble, and Bruce Cotterill- and even current Health Minister Shane Reti was given free reign in recent days. But I guess all it takes is Shaneel Lal, Shane Te Pou and Rod Emmerson to convince you it's a lefty rag. So it occurred to me over the weekend that the problem with the media is not bias, but not enough bias. Overseas, you know exactly what you want and what you get. In the UK, you read the Guardian or you read the Times. In America, you watch CNN or you watch Fox. You choose your echo chamber and you choose never to challenge yourself with other ways of thinking. Seems like New Zealand is going the same way. You may want to ask yourself if this is a good thing. Correction- an earlier version of this article said that Stephen Franks wrote the article referred to above. This has since been corrected to say it was written by Rob MacCulloch. Mon, 04 Mar 2024 01:16:45 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-lets-just-taihoa-a-bit/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-lets-just-taihoa-a-bit/ Listening to Kerre Woodham's talkback this morning you can't help but think that people are rushing to an opinion a little hastily. I say this as a North Shore resident who was told to drive the long way to work at 4.30 this morning, despite the fact that there was no wind and rain. I would be within my rights to be angry at authorities’ over-reaction. The Bridge reopened after 6 and it felt like the person with the power to decide the Bridge status got a good night's sleep, rocked in and said open her up. I presumed as one of the most critical transport infrastructures in the country that it's status was reviewed minute by minute 24 hours a day. But I have no idea about the process and so I'm rushing to a judgement based on no facts. Something that's easy to do. The weather people are still saying the worst is still to come. After 5 tonight could get pretty gnarly and tomorrow is not much better, so maybe this is a situation where a little more time is needed to judge the actions of the people in charge. After all it was just two weeks ago when a failure to warn saw 40,000 Elton John fans go blundering into floodwaters and life threatening situations. A scenario that, if repeated today with all the kids at school, would end with a city of chaos. So let's just taihoa a bit. It is a bizarre situation where you start hoping that the doom laden predictions come true, but in a way that's where we are. Already there is a suspicion of experts and every time they get something wrong a little of their credibility disappears until the point where no-one listens, which is the point that we become the most vulnerable. And at the end of the day the authorities have only offered their opinions because so many of us have shown ourselves incapable of personal responsibility. And their concern is not with the unaffected but the affected. You might be alright Jack, but spare a thought for those who aren't and remember the old tramping rule: you're only as fast as the slowest member of your party. And to quote the Poseidon Adventure: there's got to be a morning after. All we have to do is make it to the dawn and then we can review, blame, and praise. Mon, 13 Feb 2023 00:01:51 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-3-parties-and-3-waffly-bits-of-policy-which-all-miss-their-mark/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-3-parties-and-3-waffly-bits-of-policy-which-all-miss-their-mark/ Well, here it comes.  A budget and an election. The season of politicians treating us like idiots and believing they can bribe us into their camp.  Labour has released details of police and crime funding that will be announced formally in the budget on May 19.  It's a 562-million-dollar package which always sounds impressive. But as always, it's spread over 4 years. In fact, when you look at the numbers and think of the current rate of inflation and cost escalation the whole thing is barely treading water.  The headlines are about helping businesses through this ram raid epidemic. Unfortunately, there is absolutely no detail of this help because it doesn't exist yet. How stupid do they think we are. It's an example of a political party trying to shoehorn its existing policy into the news cycle of the day.  It's just the same as National swearing black and blue that its intentions to cut tax are to help people through an increase in cost of living while knowing full well that a tax cut is even more inflationary than the same amount of government spending. People spend tax cuts on smaller consumables and not on building new hospitals. When asked if New Zealanders know how to spend their money better than governments do, you can say yes. On themselves but not on community initiatives like new roads or public transport or police forces.  Meanwhile, ACT releases its alternative budget which features a 5.3 billion dollar cut in Government spending. They swear black and blue that health, education and policing would not be touched, but the list of cuts is impressive.  Say goodbye to the Forestry Programme, Research and Development Tax credits, film subsidies, both international and domestic, pest control, pine control – all shovel ready projects – all funding for Callaghan Innovation. And if you're connected to any spending for Māori or women or Pasifika then say goodbye to the gravy train. Then to cap it off they want to raise the super to 67 by 2025. Which is just 3 years away. The super will rise every 2 months for 2 years.  This is an austerity budget in all sense of the words and you'd have to wonder who would vote for it. Has nobody in ACT got a memory that goes back to Ruth Richardson's Mother of All Budgets back in the 90s and the pain that put New Zealanders through? It would be impossible to implement. It's virtue signalling.  So, 3 parties and 3 waffly bits of policy which all miss their mark.  Mon, 09 May 2022 02:08:26 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-governments-travel-bubble-caution-is-toxic-to-their-popularity/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-governments-travel-bubble-caution-is-toxic-to-their-popularity/ It’s D-day for bubbles.   Is it really?  Or will it be a day where there is an announcement about a future announcement as is the Governments favoured method of operation? If they offer not one concrete proposal or date or destination there will be considerable anger amongst the tourism industry and opponents of the government at large.   This bubble debate has been annoying as it seems to have been going on forever - which it has.   Weeks after we first emerged from lockdown, there were people advocating for an opening of our borders.  With 20/20 hindsight we realise now how misguided those calls were. In June and July last year we had no idea about just how widespread and rampant the pandemic was going to be. But the calls were understandable because the impacts on the tourism, hospitality and educational sectors have been so dramatic and specific.   Since then the issue has raised it’s head each month, only to be submerged under another break out of infection, governmental pussy footing or a political power play by Australia.   Make no mistake the travel bubble has been used by Australia as a political pawn a number of times. Angered by our anger at their Kiwi deportation policy and other issues, the Aussies have broken off talks a number of times.     They are perfectly aware that this bubble is more important to us than them.  Their economy is not hostage to tourism and education in the way that ours is.  We need Aussies to come skiing in Queenstown this winter while they can do without a Kiwi shopping trip to David Jones in Melbourne.   But now with nine months under our belt and both Australia and New Zealand approaching some stability and expertise about handling outbreaks, it’s time for movement. Five weeks since a community case in Melbourne, you’d think it would not be outside the governments parameters to open up in three weeks time. That's two months of infection cycles done and dusted.  A simple step would be to allow travel bubbles with Covid free islands to allow seasonal workers in to help horticulture.   But a word of warning.  Throughout our bubble debates people claim that billions of dollars would resume it’s flow into our economy, but that presumes that we will return to our previous levels of tourism and international students.  And I’m not sure if that demand exists. Well, certainly not to the level before the pandemic.  A return airfare to Australia is more than twice what it was bin the days of cheap travel we enjoyed in 2019.  We need the bubble as a first step to normality. The government needs to allow a bubble because their caution is becoming increasingly toxic to their popularity.  Mon, 22 Mar 2021 02:14:34 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-nz-and-its-parties-taking-it-one-day-at-a-time/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-nz-and-its-parties-taking-it-one-day-at-a-time/ COMMENT: The closer we get to this election the less able I am to differentiate between the leading parties.  They seem to be morphing into one indistinct blob.  It started when the issue of opening the border seemed to disappear from National mouths just as Todd Muller disappeared from public life.  It continues when Judith Collins started agreeing that the government had done a good job to this point. This was in her early days as Opposition leader where she acknowledged that the steps taken to date were effective.  It validated the elimination argument and watered down the flames that had been fanned by Todd Muller that our border control was a shambles.  Then she threw out the financial targets that had been suggested by Paul Goldsmith around paying off debt.  Goldsmith said the party would try to reduce net core Crown debt to 30 per cent of GDP in roughly a decade, requiring $80b less borrowing on current GDP projections.  Collins didn’t like putting numbers and targets on things which could come back to bite them on the bum if they weren’t achieved.  But it also diminished Goldsmith’s thoughts on his role which included spending cuts most notably in Government contributions to NZ Super.  Next thing we’re hearing that the Government would not extend the wage subsidy scheme as it is all borrowed money and after 6 months enough is enough.  If that wasn’t a strange enough about face on it’s own, it was followed by both Collins and ACT’s David Seymour called for an extension. While I understand why, it did seem like the parties had temporarily swapped heads.  Meanwhile the common cry that the Government has no plan for short term recovery is still trotted out by National.    Despite the fact that all of National’s economic plans are around the long term.  They’re all post Covid plans.  The new job subsidy, the writing off of GST on capital expenditure.  The billions to spent on big infrastructure which is still 10 years down  the track. They’re policies that are good for businesses that are confident on growth rather than figuring out how to get through.  It’s almost as though all politicians are exhausted and confused and not quite sure what’s going to happen to us next in our Covid adventure. Therefor they’re loathe to put their ideas on the line.  The debate seems to be stuck in the immediate issue of border control. And not much more.  There’s no talk of taxes or government cuts or a moratorium on pensions or benefits. There’s no talk on how to kill the debt monster that any government will inherit.  There’s no talk on poverty or inter-generational unemployment. Or what’s going to happen to health and education services in straightened times.  Both Labour and National are campaigning on a simple unqualified statement that each is the best to manage this.  Because.  Just because.  There is no talk about what’s next because no one really knows what is next.  We’re a nation taking it one day at a time and making it up as we go.  Mon, 07 Sept 2020 01:25:23 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-today-marks-day-one-of-the-most-critical-battle-yet/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-today-marks-day-one-of-the-most-critical-battle-yet/ So here we are again at yet another crossroad on our Covid path.  A six-month journey that so far that feels more like a year.  A period of time that is but a blip in the timeline of a virus or a pandemic.  There always the common perception that tasks grow easier as time goes on.  Not in this one.  This is the hardest part of the battle so far.  The coming weeks will test us as we have never been tested so far and in my opinion, we come into the test underdone.  Whatever the real story is behind the official social media call for half of Auckland to get tested this weekend, I believe it’s indicative of underlying tension that many of us are unaware of.  I believe that the Ministry would have liked to have tested half of Auckland.  I bet that’s where the messaging first came from.  I believe they would have extended the heightened alert levels.  I believe the Ministry and Ashley believe that this is a risky call and the chances of failure and a situation like Melbourne are not inconsiderable.   In this whole process, I have not believed the myth that the Ministry of Health under Ashley Bloomfield has enjoyed a tension-free relationship with the Government under Jacinda Ardern.  They are not some united team, bonded at the hip, imploring the team of 5 million to crack on.    The government are politicians and politicians are attuned to public sentiment.  Throughout the Covid battle, the government has mitigated the health professionals desires.   If Ashley was in sole charge, we would have gone down earlier, we would have gone down harder, we would have gone down longer.  But the politicians realise there is a limit to the public’s patience.  And we are at that limit. The well expected bottoming out of the economy is here.  The wage subsidy ending. The people whose businesses and jobs have been hanging on by their fingertips are losing grip.  Egged on by a constant level of exaggerated of criticism and comment that says everything’s a shambles, or a disaster, or a science experiment, or a conspiracy, the country has had enough and we are prepared to take the risks and the government knows it.  But are we really? To avoid a Melbourne we are going to have to take a level of personal responsibility that we have never done so far.  We are going to have to social distance, we are going to have to mask up in crowds, we’re going to have to use the Covid app.  We’re going to have to accept some personal hassle to prevent a much greater imposition.  But crowds at beaches and the running battles I have witnessed at supermarkets when people are asked to register do not bode well.  The news that members of a church in the middle of the outbreak had been holding secret prayer meetings is even more concerning.  What on earth were they praying for?  If it was an end to the pandemic then their prayers failed at an epic level.  Mistakes by the Government have created a small but vocal group of opponents who believe the whole approach is wrong.  And all it takes is a small group to become infected and six months of work flies out the window.  Today is the first day of the most critical battle yet.  Let’s hope we’re up for it.  Mon, 31 Aug 2020 01:56:35 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-tvnz-special-highlights-covids-seriousness/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-tvnz-special-highlights-covids-seriousness/ Last night I watched the Sunday programme which concentrated on Covid 19 in Australia and New Zealand.  I wondered beforehand  whether it was going to be a dramatic scaremongering propaganda piece. It was not by design, but it was by effect.  First we saw the tale of two New Zealanders who had been through a Covid infection and the effect it had on them.  Jenene Crossan was enlightening.  A 42 year old entrepreneur who returned from overseas.  She was fit and healthy and surprised by the infection and the force of it.  She talked about the debilitating cough and the pain and the exhaustion and the fear of breathlessness.    She also talked about how she continues to be affected by the infection. From becoming allergic to dogs, to being continually tired and having a vicious cough that strikes from nowhere. This is the thing about viruses.  They’re whole body experience.  One of my friends died in his 40s of heart disease caused by damage from a tropical virus he caught in his 20s.  Covid will live on long after the pandemic is over  Jenene Crossan was at great lengths to say that her Covid infection was not just a cold or flu but something far more violent. That tallies with one of my friends in France who has beaten the Covid.  He is late 40s, a skier, an amateur  mountaineer, a tramper, a fit man.  He described Covid to me as trying to climb Mt Everest - without oxygen.  Meet the Kiwi faces of Covid-19 and why they say complacency is not an option. THIS WEEK.Plus why Melbourne is doing it tough. @Jenene @taniapage @MavaEnoka #Sunday pic.twitter.com/pCgcpWhpgw — Sunday (@SundayTVNZ) August 20, 2020 Another episode was fly on the wall coverage of a Melbourne Emergency Department dedicated to Covid patients.  It was a scene from a nuclear fallout apocalypse with all the PPE’s  buzzing around. Doctors who were seeing the effect of the virus were telling the camera that this is not something to be underestimated.  But the take away that stuck with me is something we don’t mention often. Covid is so new there is no treatment for it. If you can’t fight it off yourself all we can do is calm you down and stick a hose down your throat to help you breathe. This is why the globe is so concerned.  We can treat cancer, we can prevent car crashes, but Covid has no enemy or foe.  But the doctor at the centre of the piece gave me hope.  With every case they’re learning more and bit by bit they’re learning how to fight this.  The same way we learnt to make HIV non fatal.  And the final piece was on the total shambles that was the Melbourne isolation regime.  It made our problems at the border seem trivial.  At the heart of Melbourne’s problem was the private security force.  By giving the power for sub contractor’s to hire it gave them a profit motive to hire as cheap as possible resulting in an untrained and ill prepared staff who took outrageous risks and that has been a city’s death sentence.  The provision of some public services by the private sector are always vulnerable to profit taking.  We need look no further than Serco prisons in this country or the Public Private Partnership disaster that is Transmission Gully, now years late and half a billion over budget.  I thought it was an illuminating programme to remind us that complacence and underestimation of Covid is a fatal mistake and that will kill not just your people but your economy.  Mon, 24 Aug 2020 00:39:51 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-aucklanders-have-behaved-unforgivably-in-latest-lockdown/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-aucklanders-have-behaved-unforgivably-in-latest-lockdown/ The plunging of New Zealand into heightened alert levels has been extremely disappointing.  Not just because I had tickets to the Blues versus the Crusaders.  My real disappointment is in a growing belief that as a nation we are ill-equipped for a long term battle against the virus.  There is a level of incompetence and ignorance and plain bloody-mindedness that unless it’s addressed will continue to leave us vulnerable.  We are used to hearing the complaint that our government has been incompetent.  I have levelled such complaints at them. But my fear is that the incompetence is even wider than that.  With our second wave of partial lockdowns, it was painfully obvious that the general population is just as bad, if not worse.   When the latest cluster was discovered, the government decided upon a hard and fast lockdown for the Auckland region. Primary to that was that Aucklanders were to go home and stay local to prevent the virus spreading to other regions.  Cue a mass migration to secondary homes in other regions. Tens of thousands of Aucklanders left Auckland in direct violation of the health edict and the government’s regulation.  What part of stay at home, don’t leave Auckland, did these people not understand? I’m sorry but it’s unforgivable in my eyes.  It didn’t concern me so much in the first lockdown as the whole country was affected and infected.  But this was a health measure to keep the virus contained in the Auckland region, ignored by so many of the Auckland population. It was part of the complacency that made new outbreaks inevitable.  In July a survey of 800 New Zealanders showed half with symptoms chose not to get tested. In August a quarter of those asked by their GP to take the test refused. Residents in quarantine were refusing to get the test. This is not governmental incompetence because their only answer to this sort of behaviour is to impose a police state.  Last week, testing stations were overwhelmed with symptomless citizens who hadn’t phoned either Healthline or their GP for a referral.  Workers in quarantine facilities chose not to take matters into their own hands to get regularly tested.  Wouldn’t you.  To keep your family safe from anything you may bring home.  There is a responsibility of citizens to figure out how things work. Not being told how to wipe their own bums by the government.  It was interesting a month ago when the PM outlined the future of alerts in the event of Covid outbreaks. She mentioned that partial lockdowns could be as geographically small as an apartment block, a street, a suburb, a school or a workplace.  Allowing everyone else to keep working and keep the domestic economy rolling. But that would be dependent on compliance and personal responsibility. The experience from the selfishness and irresponsibility of so many Aucklanders shows that this is unlikely to fly.  We have to learn to live with this virus.  We’ve been fighting it for more than 150 days and yet so many haven’t got a clue. Auckland had the chance to show us they could do this.  They couldn’t.  Mon, 17 Aug 2020 00:27:24 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-all-political-parties-are-living-in-a-fantasy-world/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-all-political-parties-are-living-in-a-fantasy-world/ It was good to hear Judith Collins on air with Kerre McIvor this morning. There is no doubt she is an experienced and confident speaker and a good seller of her party’s policies.  Methodically and without stumbles, she had an answer for every question. But whether they are the right answers to the correct questions is something for you to make your mind up about.  I had a little chuckle when Collins soft announced her party’s new policy on car insurance making it so a car’s insurance status is clearly stated on the registration.  Kerre pointed out that there are thousands on our road without licences or warrants or registrations as it is, let alone insurance.  Judith’s reply was classic. “Well why is that?”  Well, Judith, because it is.  They can’t afford it. They don’t know about it. They don’t care about it. That’s just reality, which is why that particular policy won’t do a thing.  It’s a fantasy. And it reminded me of what David Seymour said of this election this past week.  He said it will be a drag race between reality and fantasy. And how true is that of all politics. From all parties. We all know of Labour’s fantasies from last election.  The transformative government that transformed little.100,000 Kiwibuild houses.  Light Rail by 2020. The open, honest and transformative government full of adulterers and secret deals.  New Zealand First were good at the fantasies as well. $3 billion in a provincial Growth Fund when the money hasn’t been spent. Some of it not provincial; a racecourse in Christchurch, anyone? Some of it not wage growth; a sculpture of hanging rocks on a roundabout in the North anyone?  And the fantasies continue.  National’s $31 billion dollar infrastructure plan, including the $1.5 billion dollar Christchurch/Ashburton 4 lane highway that not even the people of Ashburton want. Will it really help an economy that will be struggling by Christmas?  Not even.   The belief that National’s plans will not involve just as much borrowing as anyone else’s.  That their front bench is packed full of experience after an exodus of talent for the ages.  This is wishful thinking.  Champions of the fantasists are the Greens.  Revisiting a bloated housebuilding dream of building 5000 extra state houses a year.  Where and by whom?  Wealth and asset taxes paying for it all and not hurting an economy already suffering its greatest shock since the 30s.  It’s always interesting to go through the manifestos of all parties through the years to see how many election promises made it to reality and it’s a rare few.  Are there any politician’s anywhere in the world actually campaigning on reality?  I wish there were because in this time of crisis straight talking is what we need, not slogans of fanciful promises.  Perhaps Labour’s policy plank of not having any policies other than the ones already in force is the most honest one there is.  Because at least they won’t be accused of not delivering.  But nor will we be able to hold them to account if there’s nothing to hold them to account about.  It really is bad fantasy world right now. Mon, 10 Aug 2020 02:10:01 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-should-we-continue-the-wage-subsidy/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-should-we-continue-the-wage-subsidy/ Well here we are in August already.  Six weeks after the solstice and so apparently we are in the deepest depths of winter  We’ve also just past the four month mark in the battle against the great contagion of our time.  It is worth re-iterating that.  The battle is still in it’s infancy. It’s only just started.  At the beginning we were told it would be two years at least before a return to some sort of normal might happen.  We’re less than a sixth of the way to that point.  But the ferocity of the debates and the dominance of Covid in the news has made us all seem as though it has been a lot longer.  That things and time has passed and changed and we can move on.   It’s completely understandable as we’re keen to get out of this slow suffocating hell.  But we do seem to be in an unseemly hurry.  The call to open borders started only 8 weeks after we closed them.  What on earth were people thinking back then?  But outside our borders, things have been getting worse and worse and worse.  Victoria is facing a wildfire of fatalities.  Our Prime Minister confirming that a trans-Tasman bubble is now months away. The UK are heading back towards lockdowns. Mexico has joined the leaders board of infection.  And on it goes. The battle has only just begun  So the battle against the virus and the economic carnage it is wreaking now reach an interesting stage.  Having completed the short term, we are now into the beginning of the medium term.  It is now just four weeks away from the end of the wage subsidy on September 1st  The $11.9 billion scheme has been in place since March and has helped insulate 1.7 million workers and their employers from some of the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic.  In announcing the end the Prime Minister said they’ve clearly signalled that a wage subsidy is not something that can continue on in the never-never.  She also said it would delay the critical work that businesses may need to do to pivot in the new Covid environment, and businesses themselves have said that they think that continuing for too long, could run the risk of being harmful to the long term resilience of some of those businesses.  I wonder if businesses still feel that way.  An international report over the weekend said that governments should continue subsidising businesses or else the money spent so far would be all for nothing.  Australia meanwhile is continuing its corporate welfarism they call Jobkeeper until March 2021  But critics of this Labour-led Government are constantly criticising them for throwing money at Covid problems we just don’t have.  The support for user pays to quarantine was in reaction to its half-billion-dollar cost to taxpayers.  And so we face a real dilemma.   This government is acting like hard arsed capitalists saying the subsidy ends in a month and if businesses haven’t found a way to survive over the past four months, that’s just tough.  If you’re true to the belief that the government can’t keep borrowing to plug the holes in a sinking ship then there shouldn’t be any extension.  But if you don’t want the baby thrown out with the bathwater should we go the socialist path and throw money at businesses that we just don’t have? What would you do? Mon, 03 Aug 2020 00:26:56 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-un-democratic-polls-and-the-real-crisis-facing-humanity/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-un-democratic-polls-and-the-real-crisis-facing-humanity/ COMMENT: I’ve never been a fan of polls. I find them to be very unhelpful for democracy. Actually they’re worse than that.  Tthey deeply undermine democracy. They reduce the competition of ideas and beliefs and principles to a ranking game without analysis or cogent thought. They are lazy journalism which is why they are supported by media outlets.  It’s easier to write about someone’s popularity and how it has plunged or rocketed than it is to investigate the policies that person represents. They have no context and so they mislead. Parties enjoying  a high poll number can see their supporters become complacent. Their opponents can be convinced to give up because what’s the point? Parties riding high can attract votes simply because of a human desire to be on the side of the winners. So as everyone always says.  There’s only 1 poll that matters so let’s just have that one.  Give the world some mystery.  Let’s find out on the night of September the 19th. Meanwhile, last Sunday I had brunch with a respected QC. The conversation naturally truned to the globe and Covid. He said that he regrets Covid’s rise because it detracts from the real crisis facing humanity which is climate change. So I asked him what sort of crisis that might look like. He said that the first impact of climate change on humanity will not be from the climate changing but from humans fighting each other. As a lawyer he is already seeing businesses preparing to minimise their exposure.  To move the liabilities. Insurers wanting to increase premiums or refuse insurance. He’s seeing developers preparing briefs in case developments are flooded or profits diminished by droughts that should have been expected by regulatory authorities. Activists looking to sue the super polluters. He said it doesn’t matter if you believe in climate change or not, this will happen. Meanwhile he has seen little concrete change of behaviour or energy use that will prevent it growing in importance. So while Covid has distracted us from the looming challengers there’s no way they’ve gone away. And with many economises struggling the carbon fires that provide the energy to grow are being ramped back up. Mon, 27 Jul 2020 01:24:43 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-national-is-as-clueless-as-labour-on-how-to-fix-the-economy/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-national-is-as-clueless-as-labour-on-how-to-fix-the-economy/ Judith Collins’ first weekend in charge of the National Party has passed and she has faced the weekend media.  And shock horror, the 61-year-old veteran politician handled the questions from Tova O’Brien and others with aplomb causing an outbreak of yahooing that the tide has turned.  It shows you how far our expectations of our politicians has fallen over recent times. We’ve got used to the struggles of the David Clarks and the Todd Mullers and the Phil Twyfords of this world to answer straight questions.  We’ve got used to politicians pretending to have convictions and positions and then flannelling when push comes to shove.  But it all bounced straight off Judith Collins because she knows what she believes and thinks and what she will hold to.  It surprised me how much relief and energy and belief swept through the National Party and its supporters because, to be frank, the policies announced were less than inspired.  Collins announced a $31 billion infrastructure spend that even at first look appears to have been drawn up on the back of an envelope over a few beers. Further, more it was Muller’s scheme but presented by Collins so it marks no difference in leadership, just a different voice presenting it.  Its biggest weakness is that it did nothing for New Zealanders in the short term.  With the wage subsidies and other pandemic economic responses coming to an end over the next 6 months, New Zealanders are worried about an economic carnage emerging in the near future.  The reason they’re worried is that they can see it with their own two eyes and they’ve heard about it constantly from National.  The government has no idea of the economic carnage coming our way was the constant refrain of Todd Muller over his 53-day reign.  So what do we get?  Some unconsented road and rail projects that may get off the ground in a decade.  How will a second Auckland Harbour crossing arriving in 2030 or 2040 help a family of four with the breadwinner who becomes unemployed next March?  It is as pie in the sky as Labour’s light rail. The second Harbour crossing has been discussed for years without decision.  Chris Bishop was asked last week where it will be.  He couldn’t answer that because there is no designated route. It’s a reckon.  Just like the four-lane, 60-kilometre expressway between Ashburton and Christchurch that they think they could build for $1.5 billion. If they can do that, I’ll eat my hat.    Last week, Jim Bolger said the country wants specific policy approaches to address the economic issues brought about by Covid-19. He said the public want politics that address their bread and butter issues, job and income, and a future for their children.   Instead, we’re getting ghost roads and ghost trams and policies reducing immigration, which is a dead issue in these Covid days.   Maybe the fact is no politician seems to have a clue about how to get through Christmas because it’s just too hard for them. Mon, 20 Jul 2020 00:15:25 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-opposition-has-shown-theyd-rather-fight-the-government-than-covid/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-opposition-has-shown-theyd-rather-fight-the-government-than-covid/ With my new working life I now get to do news and talkback just one day a week on a Monday.  This gives me a terrific chance to step back and look at the fuller news cycle rather than just the day by day cascade of stories that dominate the day but not necessarily the week.  It reminds you that a lot of stories that seemed so pressing at the time are often barely remembered past a month. So this time last Monday we were in the midst of a crisis in our quarantining. Escapees, a lack of testing amongst those released under compassionate grounds. The contact tracing app near to useless.  Add to that the appointment of Megan Woods as Minister of Isolation on June 19, and then the resignation of David Clark on July 2, and the weekend papers were full of opining on the SHAMBLES of our border security and primarily of the Government. One week later and a cursory investigation of the weekend’s papers and you’ll see the SHAMBLES now apparently belongs to the opposition. Southland brat Hamish Walker is no more after an extraordinarily ignorant release of confidential health information of those who have tested positive to Covid. The source of his leak, a former National Party President who obtained the information through her position as the head of a rescue helicopter trust and who should have known better.  This was dumb dirty politics. Trying to lay the blame of security lapses on the government when in fact it belonged on the opposition. National took aim and shot itself in the foot. It has laid bare Todd Muller as a lightweight. He took days to make a decisive statement or action that should have taken seconds. It has laid bare Michael Woodhouse, who also had the information from Boag.  While his leader was flailing around trying to blame the government, Woodhouse knew all along where the information had come from.  A real candidate for Health Minister would have dobbed Boag in the moment she emailed him the details. Stop the rot was Andrea Vance’s editorial stance this weekend towards Muller.  He didn’t even seem to know there was rot. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto announced it would pull out of Tiwai Point. This has been obvious for a long time. Bill English signalled the end of government subsidisation four years ago.  The price of aluminium is not good. Rio Tinto has better options elsewhere and Meridian offered them a lot but that was still turned down Yet the opposition lambasted the government for letting it happen.  If Muller knew his way around a balance sheet, then he’d know it was inevitable.  David Seymour also blamed the government even though he has long fought against corporate welfarism.  Even worse Seymour called the government student politicians. David needs to know that he is no better.  A bachelor of Electrical Engineering and a BA in Philosophy, then 5 years as a public policy analyst in Canada before entering politics.  He’s a career politician. He’s no better qualified in balance sheets and business than anyone in the government. And while this sideshow continues we have no community transmission and all the cases found recently have been found in the managed isolation, which while under pressure, is sign that it’s working. No matter your political persuasion, the last week seems to suggest that the Opposition is more interested in fighting the Government than it is in fighting Covid. That’s not a good look in my book.  Mon, 13 Jul 2020 04:30:14 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-abuse-directed-at-siouxsie-wiles-was-clearly-sexist/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-abuse-directed-at-siouxsie-wiles-was-clearly-sexist/ Here we are on Day 1 of the July School holidays and, of course, the weather is atrocious in many places and will be all week.  As if we haven’t already been through enough in 2020. But with holiday towns feeling the love from domestic tourism there is a feeling, which may be temporary that a new normal, related to the old normal, has returned. If we’re employed, we’re employed.  The vast majority of us are still working. We congregate in stadiums to watch world-class sport.  We eat and drink together in crowded venues. We’re almost like we used to be, although I wonder if there is some underlying Post Traumatic Stress Disorders waiting to erupt. In our measured calm approach to the global pandemic, kindness was a key motivating concept. But how close are some of us to resorting to the rule of the jungle. I read Greg Bruce’s article in the Herald this weekend about the appalling social media abuse directed at Dr Siouxsie Wiles over the course of the lockdown. Dr Wiles along with others like Michael Baker and Shaun Hendy were used by the Government and the Media to help explain the scientific thinking behind our national response. But the response to Siouxsie Wiles comments was often extreme. This so-called scientist, many called her.  An intellectual lemming, a nitwit.  People were claiming she had no credibility.  That she was a fake science lady. Of course she nothing of the sort.  She is a microbiologist and infectious diseases expert.  He university education makes her better qualified on a disease like Covid 19 than any of your common or garden epidemiologists or someone like Shaun Hendy, who is, in fact, a physicist. But Hendy who was saying exactly the same thing received no abuse whatsoever. Siouxsie Wiles was awarded the Prime Ministers Science Media Communication Prize in 2013 by John Key, she was a nominee for KiwiBank New Zealander of the Year and last year she was appointed a Member for the New Zealand Order of Merit for her services to microbiology and science. But the abuse of her intellectual credibility pales into insignificance of her personally.  As she says herself, she’s middle-aged, she’s fat and she has long bright pink hair. Cue the nastiest cruellest comments through every platform that I’m not going to repeat because I’d have to wash my mouth out with bleach to get rid of the filth. All because she dared to be a woman with an opinion, a woman with a bright and bold personality but without having the image of ideal femininity, like Michelle Dickenson. It revealed a deep vein of sexism that I was revolted by and I can’t understand who thinks this way. When I was younger I might have shrugged it off as the burblings of the conservative oldies who can’t handle an educated woman with dyed hair. But the 60 and 70-year-olds that are our new oldies are not old at all and grew up through the 70s and 80s.  Siouxsie shouldn’t shock a soul. It’s very similar as to when Taika Waititi said that New Zealand has much racism, it’s fair to say that the treatment of Siouxsie Wiles through the pandemic shows that a large number of New Zealanders are sexist as, bro, and more than proud to flaunt their ignorance and prejudices.    Mon, 06 Jul 2020 00:30:57 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-our-great-response-to-covid-19-still-deserves-critiquing/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-our-great-response-to-covid-19-still-deserves-critiquing/ Is anyone really surprised that Paula Bennett has zipped it sweetie and ridden into the sunset? After all, the horse she tied her cart to is languishing at the bottom of the party list.  The tone of the party she helped create has changed. Muller is a moderate centrist conservative who probably hates her leopard-skin coats.  The National Party is no longer an easy fit for an animal like Paula. It’s only humane to let her go free to roam her savannahs looking for fresh meat.  But it leaves the National Party weakened.  She was the campaign manager and the campaign has only days to go.  And I worry that National is losing too many of what I call the velociraptors.  The heavy hitters who like the thrill of competition in politics and do not just want a job as an administrator of this country. It’s the Amy, Nikki, Todd and Paul show now and frankly, that’s pretty bland.  Meanwhile, over the weekend I saw an opinion piece from Gordon Campbell, the left-leaning former Listener writer. He was questioning why the media was so critical of the border botch ups over the past week. He accused us of following National Party attack lines.  He then went on to say how bad National would have been at managing the pandemic.  He believes National would have gone late and gone soft and that we’d be suffering similar numbers as Melbourne right now. I feel the need to answer. Unfortunately, Gordon, the media has to report on what’s actually happening and not on what might have happened under another fictional government.  There’s been far too many “what ifs” in this debate. You can imagine that National would have been terrible as much as you like but it’s still imaginary. The media reported what happened and it wasn’t good. People did wriggle through the net.  Particularly the 55 given compassionate exemptions but not a test. With the report into the weaknesses of our border system released over the weekend, we saw more headlines talking of strain and breaking points. I read the report and I could see the problems. But I also read the report and marvelled at how much had been done so quickly. 20,000 people housed. 6500 beds found. A staff of 600 including 238 defence workers assembled, trained and deployed.  The logistics of beds and PPE and tests and food and transport and isolation.  It is a massive exercise and for the vast majority of cases we have succeeded. Media always concentrate on the failures to help fix them.  They make better headlines. So today I thought I’d concentrate on the positives.  All our Covid cases are being found in the managed isolation units showing that they work. There is no community transmission yet and every day is a blessing.  We have the most open domestic economy in the world. We have stadiums full of crowds and bars full of people. We have been great. But not perfect. Mon, 29 Jun 2020 01:13:18 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-country-is-ready-for-level-one/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-country-is-ready-for-level-one/ So if we don’t go to Level 1 at 3 this afternoon, there will be a riot. There are some who are good little scouts who believe in the crushing the virus like a sledgehammer crushes a butterfly, but I think there is a sizable majority who are feeling the pain and need the country to go back to work. And if the government has been listening that’s what they’ll say.  There is no need for a transition period.  We all get Level 1. Business as normal. But no tourists, no student and no overseas trips. Wash your hands. We already know and we’re ready. All we need to hear is “It’s 3pm, go back to work and let’s fix up this mess.” And then we have to start talking about recovering rather than just surviving. The interesting thing about National’s policy announcements over the past fortnight is that they were ahead of the curve. They are recovery policies, not survival policies. The GST holiday on capital expenditure for instance.  One business said to me on air that would not help for a while because they are not looking to buy more kit anytime soon. In fact, they’re more likely to be selling it as the demand has dropped. But when we turn to corner and start growing then that will be welcome. And by growth, that means growth that exceeds the capacity we had before Covid raised it’s ugly head. The wage incentive of $10,000 for new jobs is also a good recovery policy, but again it would have little impact until firms are growing. At the moment they’re shedding workers not hiring new ones so until a corner is turned that money would stay in the government’s pocket. There’s little wonder that these policies are being put forward by National because the soonest they could come into play is if National gets the treasury benches back.  They can’t realistically be in place until the end of the year, which doesn’t really help through this winter of economic carnage. But they’re on the right track and they are aspirational. Yet, in this time of survival, we need to be careful with where the money gets pumped into. The announcement today by the Warehouse that six stores will close resulting in the loss of 1080 jobs including 130 jobs from their head office In their statement the company said that shopping habits are changing and the impacts of Covid-19 have accelerated the process of putting planned changes into action. In other words we have been paying wage subsidies to maintain jobs that were already on the chopping block before the world had even heard of Covid. That's more than a little cheeky from The Warehouse, to be fair.     Mon, 08 Jun 2020 00:46:26 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-government-should-be-careful-about-disappointing-the-public/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-government-should-be-careful-about-disappointing-the-public/ At the end of yesterday’s programme I asked the question , “What are you looking forward to doing most under Level 2” Of course many said “get a haircut”.  It’s sort of the standard answer the same way getting KFC and Maccas was the instant response when we went from 4 to 3. It’s not my go to.  I’m quite enjoying my fuzziness particularly the longest beard I’ve ever grown. Other’s talked about sharing a bottle of Pinot Noir with their Dad, who they hadn’t seen since before lockdown.  One wanted to cross Cook Strait.  For no particular reason other than to enjoy a journey they took for granted before lockdown and Covid. One of my favourite responses was the fella who simply said, “see my chiropractor”. I can relate.  3 years ago I stuffed my neck up skiing and I need it crunched back in place and a good session of acupuncture of the seized up muscles.  I’d quite like to look right without wincing. There must be many people tolerating a low level hum of pain who can’t wait for a massage or a manipulation.  I saw no protocols for masseurs yesterday and it will be an occupation that will have to think carefully on how to “play it safe” but I’m sure they’ll find a way.  I presume they’ve been thinking about how they can do their craft in the new normal for weeks now and they’ll be ready.  I hope they kept their fingers and thumbs in good shape. When I got home I found my son and Helen in conversation about returning to Wellington so he can edit his film on India which has been sitting in the can for a couple of months now.  He was on the web looking to book a flight next week as they’re listed at $129, which seems a very reasonable price considering the situation. So of course I had to say hold your horses young fella. We’re still at Level 3 and we will be at least until Thursday because the PM has said there will be a 48 hour transition.  Add all that to Ashley Bloomfield’s evidence to the Pandemic Response Committee where he said he’d prefer a 3 week Level 3 then we can safely say that not a lot will change in real terms next week. The poor little poppet looked crushed. And this is a thing.  Yesterday’s rule announcement was greeted by tourism people literally jumping for joy.  The expectation is now huge. Add to that the Prime Minister’s warning that some sectors are going to require very complex changes to ensure public health safety therefore we may see some sectors come back later than others then you have a recipe for huge disappointment on Monday. And for a government that has seen it’s approval fraying this week as horror stories emerged of families being divided in sickness and death, large scale disappointment is not going to be a good thing politically. I know they had to tell us the rules before the change, but you wonder whether it might have been prudent to have told us 2 weeks ago rather than inflaming passions so close to the D day that Monday has become. Not for the first time this country and this government has found itself between a rock and a hard place and it feels like it’s all of our own making. Fri, 08 May 2020 02:07:26 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-are-masks-really-the-answer-to-staying-safe-during-covid-19/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-are-masks-really-the-answer-to-staying-safe-during-covid-19/ As many of you will know I moved to a new house and new suburb just a couple of weeks before lockdown. We sold our house last year and over summer we found a 3 bedroom apartment so this was the big downsize.  Of course, it didn’t work because all the kids promptly moved home for lockdown so it’s a snug downsized family home. So over the past few weeks, I have revealed that I now live in the Auckland suburb of Devonport.  For those who don’t know the city, Devonport a small suburb at the south end of the North Shores.  There’s one road in and out called Lake Road. It’s a pretty beachside suburb with five beaches within one kilometre.  It’s got the navy base which is always full of action.  It’s got two volcanic mountains which my dog loves walking up.  It’s a lovely place to be locked down in.  But it’s also fair to say everybody is a bit dismissive of Devonport because it’s just a little too pretty and twee and shall we say bourgeois.  It’s also very white with nearly 93% of the population of European descent, which is the highest figure in the nation. Now I didn’t move there to be bourgeois and beachy in a white enclave. I moved there because I never want to be stuck in traffic in Auckland getting to work. Which meant finding a place to live on an efficient public transport route. Devonport has a ferry.  In 11 minutes you’re in Auckland’s CBD. So it’s like an inner-city apartment which magically is not in the city. But at the moment the ferries run very rarely and mostly completely empty.  I’m not using them because the motorways are empty and the drive to work is a breeze. But come Level 2 and 1 as we return to a new normal and the roads jam up again the question arises on how I’m going to feel safe. Professor Michael Baker, the University of Otago epidemiologist says "mass masking" should be part of New Zealand's fight against Covid-19 as the country moves to alert level 2 making social distancing more difficult. Particularly is you’re in crowds such as on public transport, or in CBDs, or malls, or bars when they open. He reckons you could use homemade fabric masks. New Zealand could look to Asian countries, including Taiwan, which had used masks as part of successful efforts to contain the virus. Currently, Dr Bloomfield says in higher-risk environments, such as public transport, people may wish to wear a mask, but they will not be compelled to. I’m not a fan of masks particularly when you see people wearing them all day and in safe environments.  You wonder about the efficacy of that.  I do believe it’s good to stop people spreading droplets and bugs, but if you’re sick how about just not going out at all. But if next week I’m back on the ferry my question will be should I wear one just in case.  If not for me but to make my fellow passengers feel safe. And of course, for all those people thinking of using masks when they go to cafes, I ask this: have you considered how on earth you’re going to drink or eat anything with a mask on?   There was a notable story this week about a woman who had cut a hole in her mask to fit a straw. I wish I was joking. Thu, 07 May 2020 01:14:38 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-why-id-rather-be-in-new-zealand-than-australia-right-now/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-why-id-rather-be-in-new-zealand-than-australia-right-now/ It was fascinating to hear Winston Peters in conversation with Mike Hosking today. It’s been easy to forget with the extraordinary powers granted to Ashley Bloomfield, the Director of Civil Defence and the Police Commissioner to make decisions. Decisions which are then enacted by the Cabinet and sold to us by the Prime Minister and Finance Minister. That Winston is still Deputy PM, Foreign Minister and the leader of a party separate to Labour. That gives him insight.  He’s got a dog in the fight, along with a different point of view. While he’s made some headlines with the trans-Tasman bubble, this is obviously just an aspirational goal rather than a hook to hang your hat on.  As Mike pointed out this morning there’s no way that Scott Morrison is looking at flights between Queenstown and Sydney when Australians still can’t fly from Melbourne to Brisbane for a holiday in the sun. You get the feeling that was always a diversion to keep us fantasising about the happier future to come. Conversation then turned to debate about when we can reduce our alert level.  While Winston said that he would never break the confidentiality of cabinet debate, you were also left in no doubt that he is advocating for a reduction.  And that’s reassuring.  With Cabinet having all the power in rule setting right now, it is good to know that there is a plurality of voices around the table. He also gave an indication that nothing will change until May 11th.  Which is exactly what Ardern said in parliament yesterday in response to Simon Bridges asking why she didn’t consider it every day. Mike then asked why we shouldn’t reduce the limitations on business to be more like Australia.  To which Winston said that Australia is not as open as you might like to think, which Mike didn’t challenge.  Winston then said to come back in eight days and compare Australia and New Zealand then.  Which also gave me hope that things are changing next week for the better. But it also made me wonder just how free Australia is right now. It’s a popular perception that they’ve been freer to trade than us. So I’ve been checking this morning. The first thing to remember is that Australia is a Commonwealth. The federal government makes guidelines and restrictions, but how they’re applied varies between each state. So the Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australia are much freer than us but then again they have had much fewer cases and the presumption is because of their climate and low population density. But the rest of the States are much like we are in Level 3 and have been for as long as we have been in lockdowns. New South Wales urged retail to stay open while simultaneously urging people to only leave the house for food and essential services. Sydneysiders may be buying cars but malls and the CBDs are just as empty as ours Big Box retail is still marginally open is some states but they report that most business has moved online and people are wary of going out and trade is heavily down. Today, the ABC has reported that 1 million Australians are out of work because of the virus. Analysing payroll data from the tax office, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) found the number of jobs slumped by 7.5 per cent between March 14 and April 18. The data only measures those workers on the payroll of their employer, of which there are about 10 million in Australia. The presumption is that level of carnage will also be seen amongst the self employed and contractors. The point is that Australia is not markedly better off economically than us because some States were more lenient. It’s also worth remembering that at the start of this pandemic, Australia had a debt level over 40% compared to us at 20. So we’re better placed to provide stimulus. I heard a talkback caller the other day saying that the Covid debates have been full of comparisons between oranges and apples and I think that’s true. But, in my humble opinion, weighing up all the pros and cons, I’d rather be in New Zealand than Australia, now and in the future. Wed, 06 May 2020 01:21:24 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-lockdown-has-worked-now-its-time-to-let-us-outside/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-lockdown-has-worked-now-its-time-to-let-us-outside/ Well, here we are in Week 7 of a nationwide lockdown to contain and eliminate the virus known as Covid 19.  A new or novel virus for which the world has no cure or vaccine.  I think it’s fair to say that our patience for the lockdown has now broken. Our determination has wavered. Our resolve has weakened. The moment we broke was yesterday when we learnt of the case of Oliver Christianson and his successful legal challenge against the Ministry of Health. We all know the story.  His father dying from brain cancer, Oliver flew from the UK, a Covid hotspot, to spend as much time as he could with his Dad. He arrived and went into isolation as per our regulations but Dad started to fade away quicker than expected. So he applied to the Ministry of Health for an exemption so he could see his father and he was refused. In the end, it was the ruling of a High Court judge, Justice Tracey Walker, that interceded last Friday. Oliver got to see his Dad for his last 36 hours. One of the important things for me was Oliver’s good faith with our lockdown regulations.  He returned and was originally prepared to comply and waited eight days but then circumstances changed. His Dad began to slip away.  He then looked for empathy and mercy and found none until he went to a judge. A judge who exercised common decency and common sense. The Ministry had offered no exemptions in 100 per cent of the applications. 24 in total.  The problem being the Ministry wrote the ability to grant exemptions into its law and regulation. If their intention was to go hard and heartless then they should never have written the exemption clauses in the first place. But the effect of the ruling has been to open the floodgates of emotion that many of us had been holding back. While everyone empathises with the Christiansen case there have been hundreds more that you will never hear of. Like my mate whose Mum died a few weeks ago in lockdown. Due to the regulations, he waited for her death in the room next door separated by a few millimetres of jib and framing. Even though he had not been overseas, had no close contacts and was not unwell.  The three leading indicators. They couldn’t see each other as she took her last breath.  Other families were banned from being present. He never saw her body. And with emotion comes anger.  And the anger is dissolving the voluntary compliance that the Ministry of Health has relied upon.  The halo of Saint Ashley Bloomfield has been tarnished and it’s starting to fall off.  He’s been accused of being complicit in politicking, even though he is the supposedly apolitical unelected professional in charge of health provision. If Dr Bloomfield is capable of reading the mood of the country, he should know this. If he doesn’t then the empathetic Prime Minister should tell him. It’s time to move on and he should not be disappointed.  Through human history, the concept of quarantine has been used successfully against pandemic after pandemic.  Quarantine comes from an Italian word Quaranta, which means 40. It refers to the 40 days that people were isolated for in the 1300s as we fought the Black Plague. Yesterday was Day 40 of the Great New Zealand Covid Lockdown. You got us there, Ashley.  Now let us go. Tue, 05 May 2020 01:14:48 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-will-need-a-covid-19-inquiry-into-what-civil-service-got-wrong/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-will-need-a-covid-19-inquiry-into-what-civil-service-got-wrong/ So this is awkward. I go a flu jab this morning. And what makes it even more awkward is that I never even asked for it. This doesn't bode well for the narrative that the government has lost 700,000 vaccinations So last week I got a text from my medical centre telling me that I was eligible for a funded jab and would I like to come in on Monday morning.  I phoned the centre and said yes and then asked why I was getting a funded flu jab.  Have I suddenly become old or elderly of frail?  Is it some sort of mistake.  The receptionist had no idea.  I took up the offer after all, just like Damian Grant taking up a wage subsidy he didn't need.You don't look a gift vax in the mouth. So I turned up this morning and found out that the reason I got offered the vax was that I had cancer and surgery last year. The practice had looked through it's records and determined the perceived vulnerable, made their order quite early in the piece and then the jabs came through. Their first tranche was a bit slow but since then everything has been fine. To give you a perspective, this medical centre with six doctors identified and administered the vaccinations to 12,000 clients. So I asked my nurse if the government lost half a million jabs.  She didn’t think so.  She reckons some DHBs and their distribution networks just aren’t as good as others.  Welcome to post code medical care.  It must be so frustrating as a government to be constantly disappointed by the civil servants at the ground level. It’s much like how the police failed to check up on the self-isolated inside three days. And speaking of the police, the question has been asked whether they had the legal power to enforce the lockdown and the closure of businesses after a leak of an email from the Deputy Police Commissioner that showed the police were concerned. This is a question that Simon Bridges was putting to Commissioner Andy Coster last week in the Pandemic Response Committee.  He never got an answer to it because Coster ran rings around him.  Coster is a lawyer too and Bridges just never got the right question together. If the emails are correct, it doesn’t look so.  It appears Ashley Bloomfield used the wrong Act to issue the specific regulations.  He used the Health Act and not the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act. I had been wondering why Ashley announced three revisions of section 71.  It turns out he was floundering around trying to get the law right. I find that amazing.  Saint Ashley Bloomfield didn’t know how to legally enforce the lockdown he ordered.  You would have thought that would have been sorted out decades ago.  The law should have been ready to go at a moment’s notice.  It’s called having a Pandemic Plan.   You get the feeling that the Department of Health was making it up as they went along. That's not good enough. There will have to be an inquiry and a very hard look at our health civil servants to figure out how they got the very basic things wrong. And again, it must be so frustrating as a government to be constantly disappointed by the civil servants at the ground level. So did the police break the law enforcing the lockdown?  It doesn’t look so.  Because it seems like they just didn’t enforce it for two weeks until it was fixed. The phrase is non-coercive community policing powers. In other words, they just asked us to shut the country down, nicely.  And being good and polite Kiwis, we just did. Incredible, really. Mon, 04 May 2020 00:40:36 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-wisdom-from-titans-of-the-past/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-wisdom-from-titans-of-the-past/ Well it’s been a week where some voices from the past have been offering their comforting and discomforting voices. So what did we get? And are there any tricks we’re missing. John Key has spoken a couple of times and there was some comfort to be found in his predictions.  He, like all of us, knows the rest of the year is going to be extremely tough financially for all businesses and some in particular. But he believes we’ll start recovering faster than some people have said.  He thinks the regions will be hard hit. That Auckland will continue to grow slowly because of it’s economy of scale. He believes unemployment will reach double figures but not the 25 per cents that some predicts He believes property prices will slump but crawl back relatively well. He said that businesses will take advantage of the crisis to trim fat from their employees, which is brutal but accurate.  Never waste a crisis.  He also thinks commercial property will flounder as staff numbers drop and more of us continue to work from home His biggest concern was access to finance particularly to developers.  And this is the big one. You need cash to oil the wheels of business and if it’s not coming in the front door then you have to borrow it from somewhere. But his only concrete advice about what to do right now was to wake up each day and figure out another business that could go to work.  In other words Level 2 the country or at least some sectors that could trade safely. Today the pleasant baritone of former Finance Minister Stephen Joyce graced the airwaves. He was asked what is the government missing.  He too, like most of National politicians thinks we should go to Level 2. Stephen praised the quick implementation of the wage subsidy, but that needs to be extended now because of the simple reason that firms that are not going to make it need to give thie employees 4 weeks notice.  Which is a good point point.  The 12 week wage subsidy started on March 17 so we’re in the 7th week and there are 5 to go. We really need to know this week and before May 11 or the Budget which is on May 14. 2 weeks from now. He said the government has done a good job stimulating the manufacturing, forestry and  construction  sectors and he said that farming is still doing well.  But he says the government needs to focus more on retail, hospitality, personal services, tourism, accommodation and international education sectors who are hurting more every day.  He says the government is showing a bias towards the traditional trades and the traditional exports which is no bad thing but it’s not enough. This is where we come to the uncomfortable truth. Most of the sectors he mentioned are not suffering because of the lockdown and when the lockdown ends they will not be in the clear.  They’ve been smashed by the border shutdown killing overseas visitors.  Tourism and  accommodation are hardest hit and the hospitality that catered to travellers.  You can’t have much of an international education sector if international students can’t enter the country. No one is asking for the border controls to be eased and no-one will. So what is the answer to that.  Well Stephen didn’t say. Earlier in the week Mark Mitchell couldn’t tell us what his party would do to save the laundry dependent on washing motel’s linen.  That’s because no-one knows what to do about that.  Including the opposition So far the only policy National seems to be pushing is a change in levels which will do little to fix the endangered sectors It appears as though the government is picking winners.  The way Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson did in dark days gone past.  It appears that the harsh truth is that some sectors will not be saved.  But nobody, particularly a politician, is prepared to say that out loud. So from this week of wisdom from the titans of the past, the concrete proposals are these. Extend the wage subsidy now and drop the levels. Perhaps sector by sector. But it all seems too little and it’s rapidly getting too late. Fri, 01 May 2020 00:55:28 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-zip-it-winston-nows-not-the-time-for-a-blame-game/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-zip-it-winston-nows-not-the-time-for-a-blame-game/ We have a saying in our family: No-one needs a could have/should have conversation right now. We pull that one out at moments of high stress when everything is going wrong and it’s bleedingly obvious that the reason it’s going all wrong is because of a poor choice in the past. The Covid 19 debate is full of could have/should have conversations with people more than happy to tell us what we should have done in the past.  But we didn’t. So the latest was Professor Des Gorman. The former dean of the Auckland Medical School was talking to the Epidemic Response Committee yesterday. His hot take reckon was that we should have closed our borders in mid-February rather than late March.  He reckons that we weren’t resourced to do it. He’s right, obviously, and wrong all at the same time.  Actually, if we closed the borders in mid-January like Taiwan we could have been in an even stronger situation. But no-one was seriously mentioning or considering a full shut down of that at the time.  Including Professor Des.  I’ve gone back and checked the stories.  The pressure came on early March. And the reason the lockdown has worked is because of buy in by New Zealanders. In my opinion, any leader who closed New Zealand at the height of tourism season when there was not one case on our shores would have been pilloried for economic sabotage even more so that the government is being criticised now. So bless you, Professor Gorman, for your profound 20/20 hindsight at this difficult time. How about you tell us your wisdom going forward, rather than looking back. Which he has.  His other hot take reckon is that based on the numbers, we could be at Level 2 now and if we’re not he reckons that’s because the Ministry of Health is worried about something that they haven’t told us about yet. Which could very well be the case. But this is not the time or place backwards-looking blamestorming.  Instead of upsetting people over things we can’t change we might want to urge them to get up off the floor and get us going again. And I thought the same thing when Foreign Minister Winston Peters started grumbling that New Zealand might join Australia in an inquiry as to whether China told us the truth in a timely manner about the virus.   Scott Morrison has already gone full ham on an inquiry and the word is that the China/Australia relationship is much rockier now than most people realise. We don’t need to be part of this fight right now.  We need China to buy some of our stuff.  Finding out how China screwed up does nothing for the situation we are currently in.  In my opinion, the Foreign Minister is committing a little bit of economic sabotage by mentioning it.  I guess it makes him seem tough but it’s not smart. I’m sure China didn’t tell us the whole truth but knowing that changes nothing.  Right now I think it might be wise to hold your nose and take a march on Australia and sell China as much of our milk, beef and lobsters as we can right now. We’ll sort out the screw ups when we’re back on our two feet. So Winston. Zip it sweetie. Thu, 30 Apr 2020 01:25:23 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-both-sides-of-parliament-need-to-find-answers-for-small-businesses/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-both-sides-of-parliament-need-to-find-answers-for-small-businesses/ So the pressure cooker that our businesses have been in due to our response to Covid 19 yesterday exploded. It was the turn of small business to appear before the Pandemic Response committee and it was a heartbreaking litany of broken hopes and dreams from the sector that employs a quarter of all New Zealanders. Amongst all of them, there was a commonality. Ever since we closed our borders, which killed hospitality and accommodation, and then the lockdown, our small businesses have experienced a dramatic reduction in cashflow that will be fatal for many enterprises. The committee heard that while the government’s wage subsidy has helped them meet one of their liabilities, namely paying the people who do their work, there are many other costs that are sucking their reserves dry. They’ve got no money coming in but they still face debts around rates, insurance, rent, utilities, equipment leases, and all sorts of other business costs. They’re going to the wall and they want the government to do something about it. In their grief, many small business owners believe that the rest of us and the government don’t understand their plight. Can I assure small business that we do.  That we care.  But the thing we all need to know is what should we do and what do you need.  Our problem is that we've hit a wall and no-one knows what to do So, this morning Stuart Nash and Mark Mitchell faced off about it.  Nash is the Minister for Small Business. Mitchell ran through the pain our small business is feeling and then made the blindingly arrogant assumption that the Minister of Small Business has no idea how small business is feeling. I’m pretty sure Nash has been yelled at by enough small businesses to know how they’re feeling. Mitchell’s sweeping assumption is part of a common complaint against the Coalition.  They’re academics and have never run businesses. Well ,I don’t know whether you watched yesterday’s committee but the best questions came from Tamati Coffey.  He is a small business owner. Take our current Minister of Economic Development and Trade David Parker.  He’s been involved in starting the bio-tech export start-ups A2 Corporation, BLIS Technologies, Botryzen and Pharmazen. He is an experienced CEO and company director. Compare that to Paul Goldsmith who in an alternative world would be Finance Minister now. He’s been a press secretary and speech writer for Phil Goff, Simon Upton and John Banks  In 2000 he got into PR and worked for Tranz Rail and the University of Auckland.  For three years he was an Auckland City Councillor. He’s got an MA in history.  You can say he had his own business.  He wrote 10 books. He’s basically a writer and a spin doctor. People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.  Based on a lot of the aimless questions from our parliamentarians from both sides I would say lack of business acumen is widespread in parliament. What really bugged me about this morning’s debate is how short it was of ideas. Nash tells us somethings coming next week.  They better hurry up because temperatures rising. Meanwhile, Mitchell runs through the story of a laundromat operator who’s business has dropped 70 per cent since in the pandemic who sits in his office with his head in his hands.  But never says what he thinks we should do. And I tell you why.  Because the Mark Mitchell and the Opposition don’t know either. 70 per cent of the laundromat’s business came from doing motel and hotel laundry.  That business is gone until borders are opened and domestic tourism restarts. He could borrow money from a bank with a 20 per cent guarantee from the government.  But the bank would take a look at the business and its prospects going forward and say you model is shot so we don’t want to lend you money.  Harsh but true. So what did Mark Mitchell want Stuart Nash to do.? Throw government money at a failing business so it fails a few weeks later than it already would? Is that an efficient use of taxpayer funds? Should the government be paying compensation to the Laundromat owner because the lockdown unilaterally destroyed his business so he can start again with a better model?  If they do that David Seymour will be up at arms at government’s picking winners.  There’ll be big grumbles about corporate welfare. These are big tough calls.  Mitchell made none of them.  Neither did Nash. Give us a break.  We’re not stupid. We all know the problem.  What we really want is the answers. Wed, 29 Apr 2020 01:24:57 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-mcdonalds-fans-need-to-get-their-priorities-straight/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-mcdonalds-fans-need-to-get-their-priorities-straight/ I know I’m about to be judgemental. I know that some people will say you shouldn’t impose your beliefs and values on other people who are doing nothing wrong. But - I think the people who thought it was a valuable exercise to queue at 4 in the morning at a Merivale McDonalds would be well advised to go home, look in the mirror, and reappraise their life goals and aspirations. I know you’re a burger aficionado, I know it’s been a long five weeks, but seriously? Stressing your body and it’s immune system to wake outside your temporal zone to ingest a tasty snack of debatable nutritional quality just seems to be nuts to me. Speaking of judgemental, I am over the pile on to Deborah Russell. Not because I approve of her inappropriate question asked at an inappropriate time but because it’s an insignificant scuffle as part of personality politics and not at all helpful to getting back on track. To make the claim that her question in a committee, that was promptly shot down by the man in charge of our finances, is indicative that an entire party does not understand small business is drawing a longbow. In front of the same committee, the Leader of the Opposition also said something stupid when he asked the CEO of TVNZ why the Government funds them. TVNZ is, of course, a self-funding commercial entity. In fact, it funds the government through any dividend that they pay in a good year. Using the Deborah Russell example we could say the National Party is too incompetent to run a government because they don’t understand the basics of Government finances. But we didn’t. We said silly old Simon made a mistake. So did silly old Deborah. But all this judgemental assumptive flannel took up so much time this morning that the most critical question was never asked. What will happen to get to Level 2? Yesterday the PM said we’ll review the levels on May 11. Two weeks from now. But if conditions are appropriate to drop to Level 2, will we be able to do that on May 12? I ask this because when we went from 4 to 3 there was a five day transition period which extended the lockdown period. If there is a similar transition period it will effectively extend the lockdown from 7 to 8 weeks. In my opinion that extension would be even more damaging to business than the one we’ve just had. And for businesses planning for the transition, this sort of surety is necessary. We know we won’t know whether we can go to Level 2 until May 11. But if we can I want to know we can do that on May 12. Tue, 28 Apr 2020 01:30:38 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-if-level-4-ends-it-is-up-to-us-to-keep-it-that-way/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-if-level-4-ends-it-is-up-to-us-to-keep-it-that-way/ So here we are.  After what seems both an eternity and the blink of an eye we come to the time to decide the next step in the battle against Covid 19. The choice is simple and stark and yet so complicated and fuzzy. It is, as we are prone to say these days, unprecedented. Do we extend the Level 4 lockdown or do we ease the strict rules and move to Level 3? There is no right answer because the cases for both are powerful.  The consequences of both are also potentially calamitous. On one hand, the business people of this country are right to fear an extension of the lockdown.  Every day that goes by sees more life ebbing out of our economy. An extension will be the straw that breaks many enterprises backs.  Meanwhile, the health cost of a failed economy should not be discounted. A recession is bad for you.  A depression is worse.  It means a lift in poverty. Poverty means bad food, bad houses, bad mental health. Poverty kills you.  It’s been estimated last week that the global Covid slowdown has put the global fight against poverty back 30 years. On the other hand, lifting the isolation measures too soon could see wave after wave of infections meaning that in the lockdown could come back for an even longer period of time.  Causing even more economic damage and killing more people in the process. Health experts naturally tend to favour more conservative measures, because they have proof it worked throughout history.  The word quarantine was invented during the Black Plague in the mid-1300s. It was defeated when everyone was told to stay in their houses for 40 days.  Sailors arriving in port were confined to the boat for 40 days. No argument. Quarantino.  40 days. Guess what?  A fortnight extension would bring our lockdown up to 42 days. Both scenarios carry risk.  Any decision will be a calculated list. So, on one hand, people like Rob Fyfe will be pushing for an easement of measures.  Health officials will be advocating for an extension. This has always been a pragmatic government. And in that, there is an argument that they will go halfway between the opposing points of view which would see an extension of five days until we’re past the Anzac weekend. Giving the country another week to truly figure out how to do Level 3 properly.  Because I believe the concept of Level 3 is not well ingrained in our heads as yet. But the risk in that is that both sides will be unsatisfied and the airwaves will be full of accusations of indecision and a lack of leadership. And that is why, I think there is a very real chance the lockdown status will be changed. And then the ball is in our court.  You and me. If we go crazy, pile the whole family in the car, scream off to a KFC 20 kilometres away and then picnic in the park, en masse, then Level 4 will be back quick smart.  And you’ll have to ask yourself whether that family bucket was really worth it. Mon, 20 Apr 2020 00:36:17 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-need-to-remember-were-in-this-covid-battle-together/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-need-to-remember-were-in-this-covid-battle-together/ Day 12 and things are getting real. People are losing their jobs and people are worried about losing their homes. For many it's a surprise as to just how close to the edge their businesses and jobs were. Budget advisors have always warned that too many New Zealanders were only one wage packet away from insolvency and we're seeing this happen, from individuals and families through businesses and corporations. And it took just 12 days. It took just a week to kill magazines. Magazines and periodicals are very vulnerable all the time. They have to pay their staff to write the stories. Then they have to pay the printers. Then a punter has to buy the product and only then can they bill the advertisers. Magazines and community papers were dead in the water pretty much as soon as the government decided that they weren't an essential service. A friend of mine runs a monthly community magazine. She was just about to distribute the April issue when the lockdown hit. She's got 12,000 copies sitting in her garage. No money to pay a month's worth of costs. It makes a mockery of the claim that Bauer offered the government their business for $1 as a going concern. Because it wasn't a going concern. Otherwise they would have made a go of it. But that's because they're German and they're not in this with us. They're in it for themselves. Which brings me to my point. We're all in this together so let's spread the pain. If your business is going to the wall then remember your employees are going to the wall too. So be fair. Our redundancy laws on compensation and notice are loose. They merely prescribe that employers act in good faith and reasonably. So act in good faith and be reasonable and strike a deal that, while still heartbreaking for everyone, is the fairest you can do. Because we're all in this together. If you're asking for staff to cut their wages do it fairly. I was impressed by Mediaworks solution. CEO Michael Anderson has the company's workers to take a voluntary pay cut of 15 percent. The executive team is taking a 20 percent pay cut, he would be taking a 25 percent pay cut, and the Board will take a 50 percent pay cut. Because the guys at the top of the tree can wear it. A 25 per cent cut to people being paid a million means they still getting 750k but a 25 per cent cut to, say, a 九一星空无限hub trainee on 40 grand is a death knell. And make it temporary. To give us hope. Because we're all in this together And finally, buy New Zealand. It amazes me that Kiwis are online buying buying clothes and stuff made in Australia during lockdown. Buy from New Zealanders. So what if they can't deliver today. The lockdown won't last forever. So you'll get your blouse or your sneakers in a month, and you'll have helped keep a New Zealand business and a New Zealand business owner and New Zealand families last a little bit longer It's your duty. Because we're all in this together. Mon, 06 Apr 2020 00:48:23 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-covid-19-shows-we-were-not-prepared-for-a-pandemic/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-covid-19-shows-we-were-not-prepared-for-a-pandemic/ It seems counter-intuitive to be in the middle of a public health crisis and to hear that one of the first financial victims of the pandemic will be our doctors and their practices. Many GPs will be making the decision today and in the following days to close up shop because of a whirlwind of situations that has made them deeply unprofitable. In the days before the lockdown GPs were besieged by clients seeking medications and treatments before they were confined to barracks.  The doctors worked huge hours and in many cases took on new staff to cope. Meanwhile, they were busy investing in pandemic equipment. Perspex screens, portacabins outside their practice for Covid patients to keep them apart from others, and of course scrubs and masks and gloves. Then there was the decision to move to virtual consulting so doctors invested in phones and laptops and applications. And then the country shut down. And no-one went to the doctors. 30 to 40 per cent of a practice's income comes from the co-payments from you and I. So the cashflow immediately plummeted. The extra staff still need pay and the porta cabin still needs its rent paid. So here we are five days in and doctors are falling. Financially. It doesn't seem right, does it? A pandemic has always been predicted. They come with regularity amongst human populations. Smallpox ravaged the Roman empire killing over five million. The flu after the First World War, the TB, the polio and SARS not so long ago. We should be ready but we're not.  Pandemic preparation seems to be a no brainer for any healthcare community and yet we fail to invest time and time again.   This morning we heard the opinion of a French public health expert called Jean Dominique Michel. He talked about much we already know about. How no-one really tests enough, the stupidity of wet markets and the blame of modern lifestyle for creating under-lying symptoms. If you look at Italy half the people who died had three or more other diseases. Only 0.8% had just Covid. He lays the blame of these underlying symptoms squarely on four factors. Junk food, pollution, stress and physical activity. But he also lay much of the blame on the elephant in the economy room. Italy's shocking level of fatalities was partly due to an under-investment in healthcare facilities. There were just not enough hospital beds He points out that Germany has 6 ICU beds per 1000 people. Switzerland 3.5. France 3. Italy had just 2. But all those nations had seen the ratio falling over the past 20 years. It's been a modern structural disease. Population has swelled but the infrastructure to care for that population has been left to deteriorate. So to our New Zealand doctors going to the wall, I wonder why they were not prepared for a pandemic and why successive governments did not ensure an adequate pandemic plan including the provision of kit for the practices? They should not have had to pay for porta cabins and PPE. And I don't really want to tell you how many ICU beds we have. OK I will. We have just under 5 per 100,000. Australia has just under 9. The European average is just under 12 and Germany has 30. That's embarrassing A recent audit of our medical facilities found 11,000 to be poor or substandard. Palmerston North's operating theatres are 50 years old. That's bordering on criminal. You can't run the sort of immigration and birth rates that we have over the past 20 years and not spend proportionately on your health infrastructure. But we did. And now we have tents in hospital carparks and GPs going bust in five days.  Mon, 30 Mar 2020 01:29:04 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-people-need-to-take-responsibility-over-coronavirus/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-people-need-to-take-responsibility-over-coronavirus/ I don’t want to discuss whether our coronavirus restrictions are right or wrong, or if they’re too early or too late, or whether they’re too harsh or too lax. Because now is no longer the time or place. It’s time to just do this and any argument that might weaken people’s resolve and personal responsibility will only weaken the fight against mitigating the virus’ effect. It is what it is and it’s time to do our bit. This morning Mike Hosking was talking to the Prime Minister about the travel bans.  One of the first questions was about some friends of Mike’s who arrived recently from Italy via Doha and waltzed through the airport.  Mike questioned the PM as to whether our borders are truly closed. Now the first thing I thought was how much responsibility Mike’s friends took for their actions. Say they arrived a day or two ago, before the blanket ban.  The authorities would only know that they had flown from Doha, which had no restrictions.  At the time the e-passport gates were still operating so Mike’s friends could then just waltz into the country. I wonder if they feel they got away with it. It was only later in the programme, he informed us that they did self-isolate because they’re not stupid. To me, anyone who’s been in Italy at any time over the past two or three weeks has a responsibility to self-declare their travels to authorities and they have a responsibility to self-isolate.  Maybe Mike can tell us if his friends did that.  That would be more informative rather than informing the PM that people allegedly sneaked in. Because that’s what thing is all about. New words have entered our language. Flatten the curve. Social Distance. Self-declaration.  Self-isolation.  And the active word in that phrase is SELF. A number of people have already phoned talkback asking how self-isolation can be policed. The fact of the matter is that it can’t be, completely. It's SELF isolation. There are procedures in place so that health authorities can phone the self isolaters to check that they’re doing it properly, but if the infection rate rises even a little, it will be a tsunami and not everyone will get a call. This is the ultimate age of personal responsibility. The information is there and you need to make decisions for yourself.  If you will only isolate because an authority told you to then in essence you’re asking for a nanny state and ultimately a police state. We need to drop our selfishness. We need to think about everyone and not just ourselves and any inconvenience might be caused. As someone texted me yesterday, it’s time for us to stick together. Two metres apart. Sun, 15 Mar 2020 23:22:42 Z