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A weather disaster could unfold across Jamaica, southern Haiti and Cuba early next week, as slow-moving Hurricane Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Sunday (local time).

The storm may be a worst-case scenario in Jamaica, as it inches closer over the weekend before probably making landfall late Monday or early Tuesday. The storm’s slow movement means there will be a prolonged period of potentially catastrophic rainfall, with 20 to 40 inches (508mm to 1016mm) possible in the hardest hit areas. Tornadoes could also accompany the spiral rainbands pivoting ashore into Monday.

Hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5m 3m) may accompany Melissa’s core when it finally pushes ashore – probably worst in the east of the island and including the capital, Kingston. A hurricane warning covers the whole country.

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, including Port-au-Prince.

“Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning Saturday night, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next week. All preparations should be completed today,” wrote the National Hurricane Centre in an update Saturday morning about Jamaica.

As heavy rain already began to fall, two people died and another one was injured in a landslide near the capital on Thursday, bringing the number of weather-related deaths to at least three since the storm began, according to Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency.

In Haiti’s central Artibonite department, a wall collapsed from runoff water, injuring five people – including a 14-year-old girl who was seriously hurt, the agency said.

And residents are bracing for more impacts.

Because of the storm, the Jamaican Government declared the whole country to be a threatened area under its disaster risk management act on Friday.

The nation’s electric utility, Jamaica Public Service, said it was doing all it could to prepare the grid for the intense strains it is likely to encounter in coming days.

“We are particularly concerned about this system,” Lance Becca, the utility’s chief operating officer, said in a statement. “The soil is already waterlogged due to several days of rain, and the system is expected to bring more. What this means is that we will likely experience flooding and landslides that could impact the network, causing outages.”

The company said it was working with overseas contractors for mutual aid, and that line workers from outside Jamaica had begun to arrive. The utility urged patience among Jamaicans, saying “crews may need to navigate challenging terrains to assess the power infrastructure and prioritise the restoration of essential services, large industrial zones, and major geographic areas before moving to individual communities”.

From Jamaica, Melissa is most likely to track northward and cross eastern Cuba from Tuesday into Wednesday, before hitting the Turks and Caicos Islands and the central and/or southern Bahamas shortly thereafter.

While Melissa will not affect the Gulf Coast or Florida, its track may become unusual late next week.

The storm’s slow movement could increase the chance of it eventually being captured by a separate disturbance that’s predicted to be near the East Coast. There’s a slight chance that Melissa – or some of its moisture – interacts with that storm and is pulled closer to New England or Atlantic Canada late next week.

Where Melissa is now

Melissa remained a tropical storm early Saturday, with winds of 70mph (112km/h), making its predicted rapid ascension into a very powerful hurricane this weekend even more remarkable.

The storm, moving west-northwest at just 1mph (1.6km/h), was about 160 miles (257km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 235 miles (378km) southwest of Port-au-Prince.

Multiple hurricane hunter flights found winds on the cusp of hurricane strength near the system’s developing core. The wind field was becoming more ringlike and symmetric, a sign of strengthening structure.

For days, Melissa had battled wind shear, or disruptive changing winds with height, that served to knock it off-kilter. That shear was relaxing, allowing Melissa to begin a faster period of organisation.

The Hurricane Centre noted an eye feature was evident on radar imagery from time to time, another sign that the storm was intensifying.

This is a precursor to a period of expected rapid intensification to a near-Category 5 hurricane by Monday. In fact, 82% of model runs associated with an artificial intelligence model from Google suggest a Category 4 or 5 by early Tuesday.

Where Melissa is going

An intensifying Melissa will crawl south of Jamaica for days, delivering potentially disastrous impacts to the country with a population of more than 2.7 million, before an expected landfall late Monday or early Tuesday.

“Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities,” wrote the Hurricane Centre.

The impact may be comparable in strength and damage to Hurricane Maria’s assault on Puerto Rico in 2017. With a gross domestic product per capita in Jamaica that’s a fraction of Puerto Rico’s, there may be far fewer resources for recovery.

This storm comes at a dire moment for Haiti.

The southern region is still recovering from Category 4 Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, which killed more than 600 people and caused an estimated US$2.8 billion ($4.8b) in damage. An earthquake in August 2021 additionally killed more than 2000 people.

Approximately 5.7 million people are facing acute food insecurity, and gang violence has displaced a record 1.3 million people.

The healthcare infrastructure is also under severe strain, as cholera cases rise nationwide. Two of the country’s main hospitals are closed because of gang attacks. In the capital, more than half of health facilities are reportedly nonfunctional amid the surge in gang violence.

Politically, the country is governed by a transitional presidential council formed in April 2024. That council has been plagued by corruption allegations and has so far failed to hold free nationwide elections or reverse the expansion of armed gangs.

For Jamaica, Melissa has drawn comparisons to Hurricane Gilbert, which hit on September 12, 1988, at Category 3 strength. The storm dumped up to 32 inches of rain (812mm) in the mountains, killing 49 people, damaging 100,000 homes and ruining the banana crop. Gilbert left a swath of devastation that could realistically be rivalled or exceeded if Melissa’s track brings it close to, or over, Jamaica.

After lashing Jamaica and Hispaniola, a still-powerful Melissa will probably cross eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas, with additional destructive impacts likely.

Then, the storm is expected to traverse the western North Atlantic, where it could pass near Bermuda and interact with a separate storm near the East Coast. Depending on how the forecast evolves, which is uncertain, that storm could either capture Melissa, pulling it into New England or Atlantic Canada, or flick it out to sea, similar to what happened to Hurricane Erin in August.

Either way, the weather along the East Coast looks unsettled next week – but how bad it might be will soon become clearer. There is about a 10 to 20% chance of at least some impacts from Melissa in New England.