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It’s not what he said, it’s how he said it. 

Through his actions perhaps more than his words, Yuki Tsunoda appears to have let his Formula One future slip. 

Currently locked in what’s believed to be a two-way tussle with Liam Lawson to seal a seat on the 2026 grid with Racing Bulls, Tsunoda appears to be the man on the outer at Red Bull for next year. 

While the 25-year-old has been part of Red Bull’s junior development programme, and on the Formula One grid since 2021 with AlphaTauri, Racing Bulls and the senior team, Tsunoda’s position has always been linked to engine supplier Honda, one of his primary backers. 

The Herald understands that Honda pays an annual sum of about US$10 million to Red Bull to guarantee Tsunoda a place at one of its two teams. 

Earlier this year, when Lawson was demoted from Red Bull to Racing Bulls after two races, that payment was understood to have been doubled. 

However, Honda is departing Red Bull for Aston Martin at the end of this season, leaving Tsunoda’s future in doubt. At present, Red Bull have only Max Verstappen confirmed in a seat for next year. 

It is understood that Isack Hadjar, Lawson’s Racing Bulls teammate, will be promoted to Red Bull next year, with his spot in the junior side to be filled by Formula Two prospect Arvid Lindblad. 

That has left Tsunoda and Lawson battling for the final seat. The Kiwi holds an eight-point lead over his rival heading into the Qatar Grand Prix this weekend. 

Earlier this year, Red Bull senior adviser Helmut Marko gave a deadline of the Mexican Grand Prix to decide on the two teams’ driver lineups. After Mexico, that decision was pushed back until after Qatar. 

Now, with that decision imminent, a despondent-sounding Tsunoda has revealed he knows something about his future that he cannot disclose. 

“I know something that I can’t share with you guys,” he said. “But probably most people know it. 

“I’m [of] a similar understanding as you guys. I don’t know what’s going to happen. 

“Let’s see.” 

In the time since Red Bull updated its timeline to decide the 2026 drivers, Tsunoda has also been linked with the American IndyCar series. 

With Honda supplying engines to five of the IndyCar championship’s 12 teams, a free seat at Dale Coyne Racing has opened up at the perfect time for Tsunoda, who has also said he will not accept a role as Red Bull’s reserve driver. 

As well as that, Lawson was also used by Ford - who will make Red Bull’s engines from 2026 - in promotional material, after this year’s US Grand Prix in Austin. 

According to Marko, the decision to delay the lineup announcement was to allow Red Bull to concentrate on supporting Verstappen as he chases a fifth successive title. 

The world champion trails McLaren’s Lando Norris by 24 points, with three races – two grands prix and a sprint – left this year. 

With that in mind, Tsunoda says he’s only concentrating on his team’s objective. 

“I’m only thinking about this race. The decision is not made yet, it’s still in my hands. 

“I’ll try to support Max as best as possible. If I’m able to achieve that, that will be positive for my future. 

“I’ll only aim for that, and let’s see where the season finishes.” 

The Qatar Grand Prix begins at 5am on Monday (NZT). 

Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.