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It is increasingly likely Liam Lawson will be retained by Red Bull for the 2026 Formula One season, the Herald understands.

Sources have indicated the 23-year-old will likely remain with Red Bull’s junior side, Racing Bulls, as the team’s senior driver, a role he’s already filled this year alongside rookie teammate Isack Hadjar.

Lawson’s future had been subject of speculation, given his future value to Red Bull if he was outside of their plans for the senior team.

However, another promotion to Red Bull’s senior outfit remains on the cards, should the team back the Kiwi ahead of the rookie Frenchman.

It is understood, though, that Red Bull want at least one experienced driver at Racing Bulls for 2026, as Formula One’s new regulations come into effect, with the potential to dramatically alter how competitive the championship will be.

Liam Lawson at Austria's Red Bull Ring. Photo / Red Bull

Despite for the most part struggling this season after his rapid promotion and then demotion to Red Bull, Lawson has begun to show signs of the driver who impressed in 11 grands prix across the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

While Lawson has finished outside the points in eight of his 10 races back at Racing Bulls, his displays in Monaco and Austria have given Red Bull confidence that he still holds great value to the organisation.

In Monaco, Lawson deliberately drove slow to allow Hadjar to complete the team’s strategy and see out two mandatory pit stops on a circuit where overtaking is nigh on impossible. Lawson finished eighth, while Hadjar took home sixth.

Then, in Austria, Lawson took advantage of a late red flag in qualifying to start sixth and was able to hold that position, despite being hit by Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli on the opening lap.

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Austria also saw Lawson as one of two drivers to complete a one-stop strategy and hold off the assault of veteran Fernando Alonso for 66 of 70 laps.

Off the track, the Herald understands Lawson has also played a huge role in the development of Racing Bulls’ car, the VCARB02, as well as providing mentorship to Hadjar in his maiden Formula One campaign.

Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar are teammates at Racing Bulls. Photo / Red Bull

Lawson’s retention also comes at a time of great uncertainty for Red Bull.

Following the shock departure of senior team principal and chief executive Christian Horner last week, Red Bull have a lack of clarity over their senior driver line-up.

Horner’s exit is understood to largely be an attempt to keep world champion Max Verstappen at the table, with Mercedes having openly courted the Dutchman for 2026 and beyond.

Should Verstappen depart, it is possible Red Bull would have two open seats for next season, with teammate Yuki Tsunoda also likely to leave, given his links to engine supplier Honda – who join Aston Martin in 2026.

Tsunoda in particular has struggled to come to terms with Red Bull’s RB21 car, built exclusively to favour Verstappen, notably through its behaviour in and out of high- and low-speed corners.

Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda. Photo / Red Bull

As a result, Laurent Mekies has been promoted from Racing Bulls into Horner’s former position at Red Bull, having previously worked with Lawson and Hadjar, as well as Tsunoda.

Lawson and Hadjar will spend the rest of the season competing for the chance to step into the top side, if required.

While Lawson does remain in the frame to return to Red Bull, he is hamstrung by the fact that no driver has been demoted and then promoted again.

After his demotion in 2019, Pierre Gasly spent another three-and-a-half years at Red Bull’s junior side before he moved to Alpine. Alex Albon spent a season as reserve driver for Red Bull’s two teams, before he switched to Williams.

Liam Lawson ready to race at Silverstone. Photo / Red Bull

In terms of battling with Hadjar, though, Lawson is currently at a disadvantage.

Following this month’s British Grand Prix at Silverstone, Hadjar sits 11th in the drivers championship with 21 points, while Lawson is 16th with 12.

Amid speculation over his place at Red Bull, Tsunoda is 17th, with 10 points – three of which came while at Racing Bulls, before he and Lawson were swapped in Japan. For comparison, Verstappen is third, with 165 points in the same machinery.

Whichever driver remains at Racing Bulls in 2026 will likely partner up-and-comer Arvid Lindblad, who currently sits sixth in Formula Two, with two victories and one further podium.

Lindblad was given dispensation by Formula One’s governing body, the FIA, to be granted a super licence ahead of his 18th birthday, and completed his first practice session at Silverstone in Tsunoda’s place.

Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.