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• New Zealand is in for a bout of “changeable weather” during the next few days. 
• This will move off NZ by the end of the week, ushering in a cold snap. 
• Weather forecasters predict a warmer and wetter winter for much of NZ. 

Warm, wet and windy weather is set to spread across New Zealand before a cold snap drops temperatures below zero in some areas. 

According to National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) forecasts, a low emerging in the Tasman Sea will head towards NZ today. 

Forecaster Chris Brandolino said it would bring warm temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. 

“We are going to see temperatures warm once again, especially overnights and early mornings.” 

He said the odds for rain would increase around the same time as the low arrives across New Zealand. 

MetService said Wednesday is likely to be wet and windy over most of the country, as a broad low-pressure system arrives from the Tasman Sea. 

It has issued heavy rain watches for Taranaki Maunga, Tasman District west of Motueka and Nelson and Marlborough from early Wednesday morning until early evening. 

There is a high chance these watches will be upgraded to a warning. 

However, by the weekend, the low will have moved off and a cold snap will arrive. 

This week’s highs 

Auckland will see a high of 18C today, 20C on Wednesday, 19C on Thursday, before dropping to 15C on Friday. 

Hamilton will peak at 17C today, before it rises to 18C tomorrow, 19C on Thursday, before a dramatic dip to 13C on Friday. 

Highs will remain more consistent in Wellington, sitting at 16C today, 17C for Wednesday and Thursday and 12C on Friday. 

Christchurch will start to see negative temperatures at the end of the week with -2C lows expected overnight on Thursday and Friday. 

Warmer, wetter winter 

Brandolino said rain-bearing low-pressure systems could be frequently passing across Aotearoa during the coming winter months. 

“That usually brings with it higher chances of rain and warmer temperatures.” 

The forecaster also predicted wetter than normal months ahead. 

“Maybe you’re not running the heater as often, maybe you’re not wearing the puffer jacket as much. If you’re a snow enthusiast, it may be a bit of a bummer season,” he said. 

NIWA Weather says it will be a warmer than average winter for New Zealand. Photo / NIWA 

Niwa forecasts the long-term average temperature from June to August to be a balmy 12.5C in Kaitāia. 

For the rest of the country, Auckland is forecast to see a long-term average of 11.6C, 9.5C in Hamilton and 8.5C in Masterton. 

For the South Island, the average temperature in Nelson would be 8.3C, 7.4C in Christchurch and 7.3C in Dunedin. 

Brandolino said the top half of North Island could see wetter than normal conditions. 

“The best chances for that are Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Auckland and Northland.” 

NIWA Weather predicts higher than average rainfall for the majority of New Zealand this summer. Photo / NIWA 

The two wettest places in the North Island would be Kaitāia at 395mm and New Plymouth at 415mm. 

The highest average rainfall in the South Island is along the West Coast with 735mm predicted. 

However, the forecaster said there was more uncertainty of the rain levels for the rest of the country. 

He predicts the bottom half of the North Island, and the top and western and southern parts of the South Island could see above or normal levels of rain for this time of year. 

David Williams is an Auckland-based multimedia journalist who joined the Herald in 2023. He covers breaking news and general topics.