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The heatwave affecting Europe won’t be a precursor for New Zealand’s summer, according to Earth Sciences New Zealand.

Large swaths of Europe are experiencing yet another heatwave, with record temperatures and wildfires burning in several countries.

The heat is pegged to a weather phenomenon known as a “heat dome”, where an area of high pressure traps the warm air underneath it.

But Chris Brandolino, a forecaster at Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly Niwa), told Morning Report that Europe’s summer weather did not offer any insight into what our summer might look like.

“Europe is a long way away. The climate drivers that affect their weather are different from ours,” Brandolino said.

“We’re an island nation surrounded by water. We can get high-pressure domes that can cause extended periods of warm to hot weather during the warm season. But it’s tempered by the ocean.

“We tend to get really hot temperatures when a heat dome forms over Australia, for example, and that air gets shifted to the east over New Zealand.”

As to what our summer would bring, Brandolino said it was a bit too far out to know exactly. But the weather forecaster had some long-range predictions for the North Island and the South Island.

“When we’re making a super long-range outlook, we’re trying to identify what the expected climate drivers are, who’s going to be driving Mother Nature’s car?” he said.

“Right now, La Niña is emerging as a contender to be driving that car.

“Historically, when we have La Niña, we tend to have high pressure that can produce a heat dome over southeastern New Zealand.”

“That would mean areas in the South Island, particularly the western South Island, have the best chance of dry weather, perhaps too much dry weather. We’ll potentially have to be mindful of a lack of rainfall and the implications that come from that.”

“For the North Island, it depends on where the high pressure sets up. If it sets up closer to New Zealand, it will shield much of the country from northerly winds that will bring heavy rainfall and humidity.”

“If the high pressure is further east, towards the Chathams, let’s say, that opens the door for winds to come from the north and east, and areas in the northern and eastern North Island will have higher odds for big rainfall.”

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