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Property values are back up again after a five-month fall. 

And while the increase in September was small, one economist says it may be an early sign of an economic turnaround. 

A 0.1% increase over the month has pushed the national median house price to $810,141. It comes off the back of a cumulative drop of 1.6% over the five months from April to August. 

Property data firm Cotality released its updated home value index this morning. 

Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the rise in values was consistent with lower mortgage rates and an upward trend in property sales volumes - “as well as early tentative signs of an economic turnaround”. 

“That said, September’s rise in values was clearly marginal, and it’s far too early to conclude that this marks the start of a new, sustained lift,” Davidson said. 

“After all, the stock of available listings – while falling – remains relatively high, and caution continues to pervade the market. 

“In short, we’re not on solid economic ground yet.” 

Chief economist at Infometrics, Brad Olsen, told the Herald September’s numbers showed “a pretty small shift” and “a pretty lacklustre” housing market. 

Olsen did not think it was evidence of a wider trend of increasing values. 

“A 0.1% increase still leaves national house prices sitting more than 17% below their peak. 

“Two more months of growth in a row, then you’re starting to see a little bit more of a trend, but I think for the moment, one month of growth after five of declines, there’s a question of ‘is this a monthly blip?’.” 

Kiwibank’s chief economist Jarrod Kerr called September’s numbers disappointing. 

“You’re not particularly shooting the lights out for a spring month,” Kerr said of the 0.1% increase. 

“It is disappointing. We’re a long way from a full recovery. We are becoming a little bit more optimistic that the Reserve Bank is finally, actually delivering [after] it’s been dragged kicking and screaming.” 

Davidson, meanwhile, said it was “a good time to be a buyer, provided they can get the finance”. 

He said first home buyers are a strong presence in the market, in particular. 

Mortgaged multiple-property owners have also returned “in greater numbers”. 

Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers business, breaking news and local stories from Tāmaki Makaurau. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.